Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Melendez singled to left, Blanco scored, Melendez to second.1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Sheets homered to right (391 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Perez doubled to center, Pasquantino scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 62%
- ML CHW +155 / KC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- KC: Elo 53.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +26 Elo | KC 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.0 | Runs scored | 4.913th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−3.3 | Margin | +1.98th of 30 |
| 22nd of 280–1 | Road vs home | 2–211th of 26 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–2 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | — | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3–1 | 3–3–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3–1 | 3–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–8 KC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.