Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Garcia tripled to center, Loftin scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Cowser doubled to left, Westburg scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Garcia doubled to left, Fermin scored and Loftin scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Loftin singled to right, Hampson scored, Fermin to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML KC +135 / BAL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 67.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +8 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +126 Elo | BAL 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 7.83rd of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +4.02nd of 30 |
| 18th of 180–1 | Road vs home | 3–14th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–6 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.