Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Westburg homered to right center (369 feet), Mullins scored.4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 9Garcia hit sacrifice fly to right, Blanco scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 33–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Mountcastle reached on infield single to shortstop, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.3–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Mountcastle homered to left (408 feet), Santander scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Santander singled to right, Rutschman scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Perez homered to center (418 feet), Pasquantino scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Witt Jr. homered to center (440 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML KC +130 / BAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 62.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.6 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −3 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +88 Elo | BAL 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 8.32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 3.710th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +4.72nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–5 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.