Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- James McCannBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCann singled to left, Mountcastle scored and Mullins scored, Hays to second.3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Rutschman singled to right, McCann scored, Rutschman out stretching at second.3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Henderson hit sacrifice fly to center, Cowser scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 7Garcia homered to right center (377 feet).3–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Perez singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Perez reached on infield single to shortstop, Pasquantino scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 61%
- ML KC +145 / BAL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 63.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -154
- KC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.0 – 4.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +94 Elo | BAL 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 6.45th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +2.65th of 30 |
| 9th of 181–1 | Road vs home | 3–27th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | — | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–6 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.