Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Melendez homered to right center (421 feet), Perez scored.1–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–10
- 7Perez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Garcia, Isbel and Witt Jr. scored on fielding error by shortstop Shewmake, Perez second.1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 7Garcia singled to right, Frazier scored, Isbel to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Isbel singled to right, Renfroe scored and Velázquez scored, Frazier to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Vaughn singled to right, Moncada scored, Sheets to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Velázquez homered to left center (429 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Velázquez singled to left, Melendez scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 63%
- ML CHW +160 / KC -190
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- KC: Elo 56.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -170
- CHW +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +15 | CHW: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +47 Elo | KC 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.2 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.36th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | — | — |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 1–3–1 | 2–3–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–3–1 | 2–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–7 KC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.