Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fermin scored on error, Isbel safe at first on error by pitcher Leone.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Melendez homered to right center (405 feet), Blanco scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 5Renfroe homered to left (369 feet), Velázquez scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Benintendi singled to center, Sheets scored, Vaughn to second.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Shewmake hit sacrifice fly to right, Fletcher scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Fletcher doubled to right, Benintendi scored, Fletcher to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML CHW +110 / KC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- KC: Elo 50.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | −12 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +5 Elo | KC 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 301.6 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 2.42nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−3.0 | Margin | +1.94th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 4–26th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5–1 | 3–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5–1 | 3–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–10 KC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.