Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Paul DeJongBatting1-3
- Chris FlexenPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Garcia reached on infield single to second, Blanco scored, Isbel to second, Hampson to third.0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Melendez homered to center (416 feet), Perez scored.0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- KC 67%
- ML CHW +190 / KC -230
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- KC: Elo 59.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- KC -202
- CHW +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 5.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −30 | +3 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +69 Elo | KC 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 301.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 2.84th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−3.0 | Margin | +1.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 3–210th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4–1 | 3–4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4–1 | 3–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–9 KC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.