Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pasquantino singled to center, Hampson scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 8Hampson doubled to left, Renfroe scored.2–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 6Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.2–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 4Pasquantino homered to right center (389 feet).2–8
- 4Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 4J. Abreu hit sacrifice fly to center, Diaz scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Diaz doubled to left, Bregman scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 3Renfroe doubled to right, Frazier scored and Velázquez scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 3Frazier singled to center, Melendez scored on error, Velázquez to second, Velázquez safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Meyers.0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML HOU -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +17 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti (no track record yet) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +20 Elo | HOU 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 2.51st of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.84th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 20th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 6–24th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–8 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8–1 | 3–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–6 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.