Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Perez singled to center, Hampson scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Witt Jr. scored on error, Pasquantino safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Bregman.3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Witt Jr. tripled to center, Renfroe scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Garcia hit sacrifice fly to left, Frazier scored, Renfroe to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Alvarez doubled to right, Dubón scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Alvarez singled to right, Peña scored, Altuve to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Diaz grounded into fielder's choice to third, Altuve scored, Tucker out at second, Alvarez to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML HOU -125 / KC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +38 Elo | HOU 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 2.51st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.94th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 5–26th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–7 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7–1 | 3–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–5 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.