Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Meyers doubled to left, Dubón scored and Peña scored.12–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–6
- 7Dubón singled to right, Singleton scored, Peña to second.12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–6
- 7Tucker homered to right (385 feet), Alvarez scored.12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–5
- 6Walsh singled to right, Smith scored and Langford scored.12–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging10–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 310–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 210–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 6Heim grounded out to second, García scored, Langford to second, Smith to third.10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 6García singled to right, Carter scored.9–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 4Meyers singled to center, Peña scored, Dubón to second.8–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 4Dubón singled to center, Diaz scored, Peña to third.8–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 4Carter singled to right, Semien scored, Seager to second.8–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 3Heim homered to right center (408 feet), Smith scored and Langford scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Langford singled to left, Carter scored and García scored on fielding error by left fielder Dubón, Langford to second, Smith safe at third on error.4–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML TEX +105 / HOU -125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 47.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +18 Elo | TEX 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.919th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.423rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 9th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–7 | 4–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 5–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–14 HOU in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 24.
- Apr 8HOU 10 @ TEX 5Picked TEX 54%Miss
- Apr 7HOU 3 @ TEX 1Picked TEX 51%Miss
- Apr 6HOU 2 @ TEX 7Picked TEX 50%Hit
- Apr 5HOU 2 @ TEX 10Picked HOU 56%Miss
- Oct 23TEX 11 @ HOU 4PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss
- Oct 22TEX 9 @ HOU 2PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss
- Oct 20HOU 5 @ TEX 4PlayoffsPicked TEX 53%Miss
- Oct 19HOU 10 @ TEX 3PlayoffsPicked TEX 53%Miss