Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dubón singled to right, Peña scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 9Tucker homered to right (378 feet).6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 9Tromp doubled to center, Guillorme scored and Kelenic scored.6–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 9Guillorme hit a ground rule double, Ozuna scored and Arcia scored, Kelenic to third.4–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 7Arcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Riley scored, Ozuna to second, Olson to third.2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Arcia homered to left center (371 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 50%
- ML ATL -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 44.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −22 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +39 Elo | ATL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 4–722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–4–1 | 8–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.