Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Darius VinesPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-4
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II grounded into fielder's choice to second, Albies scored, Ozuna out at second, Riley to third.6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 9Ozuna singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Riley to second, Albies to third.5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 9Riley singled to left, Arcia scored, Albies to second, Acuña Jr. to third.4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 9Arcia singled to left, Duvall scored.3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Albies hit by pitch, Kelenic scored, Acuña Jr. to second, Guillorme to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Guillorme reached on infield single to shortstop, d'Arnaud scored on throwing error by shortstop Peña, Kelenic safe at third on error.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Bregman singled to left, Tucker scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML ATL -115 / HOU -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.3 – 5.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −20 | ATL: Darius Vines: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +32 Elo | ATL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.5 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 4–619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–8 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | — | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–3–1 | 8–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–3 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.