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Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast

Final

Away

Rangers

8-8

5–8

at

Home

Astros

6-11

TEX 49%HOU 51%

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Daikin Park

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.

HOU75%50%75%TEXStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
  • Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Astros
  • Jose AltuveBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
  • Cristian JavierPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Semien homered to left (369 feet), Langford scored and Heim scored.5–8
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
  • 7Caratini grounded out to second, Diaz scored, Peña to second, McCormick to third.2–8
  • 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
  • 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
  • 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
  • 7McCormick doubled to left, Alvarez scored and Tucker scored, Diaz to third.2–7
  • 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
  • 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
  • 5Semien doubled to left, Taveras scored.2–5
  • 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
  • 4Dubón doubled to right, Caratini scored and Peña scored.1–5
  • 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
  • 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
  • 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
  • 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
  • 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
  • 4Caratini doubled to left, McCormick scored, Peña to third.1–3
  • 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
  • 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
  • 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
  • 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
  • 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
  • 4Carter homered to right center (407 feet).1–2
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
  • 3Altuve homered to left (381 feet).0–2
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
  • 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
  • 1Altuve homered to left (397 feet).0–1
  • 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
  • 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
  • 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Astros 51%

Toss-upHit
TEX 49%HOU 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
HOU 51%
ML TEX -105 / HOU -115
Pre-line forecast
HOU 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU 47%
Ratings vs. market
−3.8 pts
HOU: Elo 47.3%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
HOU -104
TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TEX 4.2 – 4.3 HOU
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTEXHOUWhy
Team rating15391515Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+14+2TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTEX +19 EloTEX 52.7%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 54.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastHOU 53.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastHOU 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

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Texas Rangers and Houston Astros compared, with each team's league rank
TEXStatHOU
9th of 305.4Runs scored4.515th of 30
9th of 304.3Runs allowed5.528th of 30
7th of 30+1.1Margin−1.024th of 30
13th of 305–5Last 104–621st of 30
14th of 303–2Road vs home3–621st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersAstros
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTEXHOU
Run line7–85–11
Last 105–54–6
Favorite3–63–10
Underdog4–22–1
Overs–unders7–87–8–1
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TEX 11–15 HOU in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 26.