Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tauchman homered to left center (376 feet).2–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to second, Swanson scored, Amaya out at second, Mervis to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Meyers homered to left (375 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Diaz doubled to center, Tucker scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 1Tauchman homered to left (370 feet), Morel scored and Swanson scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Bellinger homered to right (428 feet), Happ scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -115 / CHC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 44.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.3 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +3 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +41 Elo | CHC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 7–32nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–15 | 15–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12–3 | 11–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–0 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.