Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting2-3
- Hunter BrownPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-4, 2 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Senzel homered to left center (389 feet).0–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Meneses singled to right, Abrams scored and Young scored, L. García Jr. to third.0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1L. García Jr. singled to center, Winker scored and Thomas scored, L. García Jr. to second.0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Winker singled to left, Abrams scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML HOU -170 / WSH +145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 48.9%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -154
- WSH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.0 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +10 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +8 Elo | WSH 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.821st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–14 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11–3 | 8–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.