Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Meneses singled to right, Nuñez scored.4–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Winker singled to center, Senzel scored and Abrams scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Tucker singled to center, Alvarez scored, Bregman to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Peña singled to left, Bregman scored, Tucker to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 7Tucker singled to left, Alvarez scored, Tucker to second, Bregman to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Adams hit sacrifice fly to center, Gallo scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 1Abrams homered to right center (405 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Bregman hit sacrifice fly to center, Altuve scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML HOU -180 / WSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −2 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +47 Elo | HOU 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.624th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–13 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10–3 | 8–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.