Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Amaya scored, Suzuki safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Rengifo, Happ to second, Hoerner to third.5–2
- 8Hoerner singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Amaya to third.5–1
- 8Turang homered to left center (370 feet), Hamilton scored.5–0
- 3Bauers singled to right, Contreras scored, Mitchell to third.3–0
- 3Chourio scored on Brown wild pitch, Contreras to second on wild pitch by Brown.2–0
- 3Chourio scored on Brown wild pitch, Contreras to second on wild pitch by Brown.2–0
- 1Mitchell singled to right, Turang scored, Contreras to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -125 / CHC +104
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 50.1%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -113
- CHC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +1 Elo | MIL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 7th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 18–62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301555 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–19 | 21–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–15 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 13–4 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22–1 | 26–18–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 25–20 CHC in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 45.
- May 18MIL 9 @ CHC 3Picked CHC 59%Miss
- Oct 11CHC 1 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Hit
- Oct 9MIL 0 @ CHC 6PlayoffsPicked MIL 52%Miss
- Oct 8MIL 3 @ CHC 4PlayoffsPicked CHC 50%Hit
- Oct 6CHC 3 @ MIL 7PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Hit
- Oct 4CHC 3 @ MIL 9PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Hit
- Aug 21MIL 4 @ CHC 1Picked CHC 56%Miss
- Aug 20MIL 3 @ CHC 4Picked MIL 53%Miss