San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4
- Ron MarinaccioPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Song grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Castellanos scored, Johnson out at second, Fermin to third.1–7
- 4Rengifo singled to center, Vaughn scored.0–7
- 2Vaughn singled to right, Sánchez scored.0–6
- 2Sánchez doubled to center, Turang scored.0–5
- 2Turang doubled to left, Hamilton scored.0–4
- 1Rengifo singled to right, Contreras scored and Sánchez scored, Vaughn to third.0–3
- 1Vaughn walked, Turang scored, Sánchez to second, Contreras to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 56%
- ML SD +118 / MIL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.2%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -128
- SD +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +10 | SD: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +58 Elo | MIL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 14–96th of 30 |
| 29th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 6th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–22 | 23–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–24–2 | 19–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–11 MIL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.