Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Padres- Jose IglesiasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Fermin singled to center, Johnson scored.4–5
- 10Sheets grounded into fielder's choice to first, Arraez scored, Merrill out at second.4–4
- 10Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Turang scored.4–3
- 7Arraez singled to right, Iglesias scored, Laureano to third.3–3
- 5Iglesias homered to left center (409 feet).3–2
- 2Yelich singled to center, Collins scored and Vaughn scored, Durbin thrown out at third.3–1
- 2Durbin singled to left, Frelick scored, Collins to second, Vaughn to third.1–1
- 1Machado scored on a balk, O'Hearn to second on a balk, Merrill to third on a balk.0–1
- 1Machado scored on a balk, O'Hearn to second on a balk, Merrill to third on a balk.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML MIL -110 / SD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- SD: Elo 46.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- MIL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.3 – 3.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +23 Elo | MIL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3044–34 | Road vs home | 47–287th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 1st of 301569 | Elo rating | 15249th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–70 | 85–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–50 | 39–50 |
| Underdog | 42–20 | 46–21 |
| Overs–unders | 78–78 | 68–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–8 SD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.