San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4
- Michael KingPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perkins singled to left, Turang scored, Perkins to second.0–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML SD -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 51.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −7 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Bryse Wilson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +13 Elo | MIL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 6.12nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.615th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–9 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8–1 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–6 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.