San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RossPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Campusano singled to left, Kim scored, Merrill to second.7–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 5Merrill singled to center, Cronenworth scored and Machado scored, Kim to second.6–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5Machado reached on infield single to second, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to second.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Wade scored, Bogaerts to third on passed ball by Contreras.3–3
- 5Wade scored, Bogaerts to third on passed ball by Contreras.3–3
- 5Tatis Jr. grounded out to second, Campusano scored, Bogaerts to second, Wade to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Kim grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cronenworth scored, Machado out at second.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 2Chourio homered to left (368 feet), Ortiz scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Adames singled to left, Chourio scored, Contreras to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML SD -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 52.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −14 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Joe Ross: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +19 Elo | MIL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 6.51st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–27th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–9 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8–1 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 1–6 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.