Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- DL HallPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adames doubled to left, Contreras scored and Frelick scored.11–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–5
- 8Frelick doubled to center, Ortiz scored, Contreras to third.9–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 4Bauers homered to right center (409 feet), Contreras scored and Adames scored.8–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 4Contreras singled to center, Dunn scored.5–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 3Rutschman homered to center (414 feet).4–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 3Hoskins singled to left, Frelick scored on error and Adames scored on fielding error by left fielder Hays.4–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Bauers grounded out to third, Contreras scored, Adames to second, Frelick to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 2Henderson singled to center, Cowser scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Hoskins homered to left center (409 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Westburg homered to center (400 feet), Santander scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML MIL +125 / BAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- MIL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | MIL: DL Hall: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.3 | Runs scored | 5.510th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.3 | Margin | +1.46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–1 | Road vs home | 4–39th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–5 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 7–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–1 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.