Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Duran doubled to center, Reyes scored.9–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 10Cowser homered to right center (438 feet), Mountcastle scored and Mullins scored.9–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 36–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 10Mullins singled to center, O'Hearn scored, Mountcastle to third.6–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 10Henderson homered to left (371 feet), Holliday scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Wong homered to left center (393 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Santander homered to right (332 feet), Holliday scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Cowser homered to left (357 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Abreu doubled to left, Casas scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Yoshida grounded out to second, Duran scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML BAL -130 / BOS +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +4 Elo | BAL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.714th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.23rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.1 | Margin | +1.56th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 14th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 0–229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–4 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4–2 | 6–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 9–6 BOS in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.