Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mullins singled to center, Rutschman scored, O'Hearn to second, Hays to third.7–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 9Santander singled to right, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 8Cowser hit sacrifice fly to right, O'Hearn scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Rutschman singled to center, Henderson scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Cowser doubled to center, Mountcastle scored and Mullins scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Cowser doubled to center, Mullins scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1O'Neill homered to left center (413 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML BAL -125 / BOS +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 3.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +16 Elo | BAL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 2.42nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +2.63rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–4 | 8–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4–1 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–6 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.