Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mullins homered to right (366 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Triolo homered to center (411 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Santander doubled to left, Henderson scored, Rutschman to third.4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Rutschman singled to left, Urías scored, Henderson to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Cruz homered to right (377 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Henderson homered to center (407 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2O'Hearn homered to center (389 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML BAL -120 / PIT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 3.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +7 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +8 Elo | BAL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| BAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 306.0 | Runs scored | 7.02nd of 30 |
| 10th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +2.74th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 6–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 6–1 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | — | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2–1 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2–1 | 6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.