Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-5
- Tyler WellsPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 11Cruz singled to right, Davis scored.4–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Olivares walked, Reynolds scored, Suwinski to second, Joe to third.4–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 44–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 10Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to center, Kemp scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 9Mullins grounded into fielder's choice to first, Westburg scored, O'Hearn third.3–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 7Mullins hit sacrifice fly to left, Westburg scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 7Hays grounded out to third, Santander scored, Westburg to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Bart homered to left center (410 feet), Tellez scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Tellez singled to right, Olivares scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML BAL -140 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -128
- PIT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −18 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +36 Elo | BAL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.9 | Runs scored | 6.45th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +2.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | — | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3–1 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3–1 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–1 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.