Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Edward OlivaresBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olivares grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Suwinski scored on error and Joe scored on throwing error by shortstop Henderson, Tellez out at second.2–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Davis hit sacrifice fly to right, Olivares scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Santander singled to center, Mountcastle scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Mountcastle doubled to center, Rutschman scored on error, Mountcastle safe at third on error by shortstop Cruz.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BAL -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 3.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +7 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +16 Elo | BAL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 6.25th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +1.96th of 30 |
| 13th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–110th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | — | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3–1 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3–1 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–2 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.