Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Westburg homered to center (432 feet), Mountcastle scored and Mullins scored.7–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 7O'Hearn scored on Martin wild pitch, Mullins to second on wild pitch by Martin, Mountcastle to third on wild pitch by Martin.4–5
- 7O'Hearn scored on Martin wild pitch, Mullins to second on wild pitch by Martin, Mountcastle to third on wild pitch by Martin.4–5
- 6Holliday grounded out to second, Cowser scored, Westburg to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Cowser singled to left, Mountcastle scored and Mullins scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 5Casas homered to left (341 feet), Devers scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Wong singled to right, Casas scored and González scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3O'Neill reached on infield single to second, Duran scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BAL -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −4 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +24 Elo | BAL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 2.82nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.1 | Margin | +1.84th of 30 |
| 16th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 0–129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–4 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4–2 | 5–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–6 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.