Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Perkins homered to right center (384 feet).7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5De La Cruz homered to left center (379 feet).6–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 4Fairchild singled to right, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Candelario thrown out at third.6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4Chourio hit sacrifice fly to center, Perkins scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Contreras singled to right, Turang scored and Chourio scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Chourio singled to left, Bauers scored on error, Chourio to second, Turang to second, Turang safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Steer.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Yelich homered to right center (367 feet), Chourio scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 56%
- ML MIL +120 / CIN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 44.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -128
- MIL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −4 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +36 Elo | MIL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.57th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304–1 | Road vs home | 4–412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–5 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 11–4 CIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.