Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Joe RossPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Steer doubled to left, Fraley scored.9–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 8De La Cruz grounded out to shortstop, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Fraley to third.9–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 7Stephenson doubled to left, De La Cruz scored and Steer scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 19–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 7Frelick singled to center, Bauers scored, Hoskins to second.9–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–1
- 7Bauers doubled to right, Adames scored and Contreras scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 6Perkins singled to right, Frelick scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Yelich doubled to right, Contreras scored and Perkins scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Fraley singled to center, Encarnacion-Strand scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Yelich singled to right, Perkins scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Perkins singled to right, Frelick scored and Turang scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML MIL +115 / CIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +10 | MIL: Joe Ross: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +14 Elo | CIN 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.716th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.911th of 30 |
| 4th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 4–310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–4 CIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.