Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron AshbyPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7De La Cruz homered to center (282 feet).8–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–10
- 7Yelich homered to left (360 feet), Contreras scored.8–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–9
- 6Ortiz reached on infield single to pitcher, Turang scored on throwing error by pitcher Ashcraft, Ortiz to second.6–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 6Turang doubled to left, Chourio scored and Frelick scored.5–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 5De La Cruz homered to center (450 feet).3–9
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 5Contreras singled to right, Ortiz scored, Dunn to second.3–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 5Turang homered to center (397 feet), Frelick scored.2–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 4Candelario singled to right, Steer scored.0–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 4Steer doubled to center, Benson scored and Fairchild scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4Benson doubled to right, Espinal scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Espinal sacrificed, Stephenson scored and De La Cruz scored, Espinal to first on throwing error by third baseman Ortiz, Espinal to third.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML MIL -110 / CIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 48.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -100
- MIL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −8 | MIL: Aaron Ashby (no track record yet) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +13 Elo | MIL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.110th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.812th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 28 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–3 CIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.