Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ortiz singled to right, Frelick scored, Monasterio to second.11–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 210–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 110–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 6Frelick singled to right, Adames scored, Frelick to second.10–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking9–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 39–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 210–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 6Contreras homered to right center (396 feet), Ortiz scored.9–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
- 5Adames homered to left (399 feet), Contreras scored and Perkins scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Cowser homered to right center (415 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Hoskins singled to left, Adames scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Ortiz tripled to right, Monasterio scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Sánchez homered to left (434 feet), Hoskins scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -125 / BAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 48.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −9 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +13 Elo | BAL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 5.84th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +2.33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 305–1 | Road vs home | 4–24th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.