Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cowser homered to right center (422 feet).4–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 7Rutschman grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Holliday scored, Henderson out at second.4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Henderson singled to right, Westburg scored, Holliday to third.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Perkins homered to right center (381 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–3
- 4Turang reached on bunt single to pitcher, Adames scored on throwing error by pitcher Burnes, Turang to second, Sánchez safe at third on error.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3O'Hearn homered to right center (408 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Perkins scored, Frelick caught stealing second, catcher to second to first to shortstop.2–2
- 3Perkins scored, Frelick caught stealing second, catcher to second to first to shortstop.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Mullins homered to right (396 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1O'Hearn singled to right, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Contreras homered to center (420 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 66%
- ML MIL +185 / BAL -227
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.2%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -198
- MIL +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.5 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +10 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +22 Elo | BAL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.7 | Runs scored | 5.48th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.5 | Margin | +0.911th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–1 | Road vs home | 4–410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–5 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 8–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–1 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.