San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting3-4
- Wade MileyPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras grounded into fielder's choice to third, Wiemer scored, Frelick out at second.6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Contreras singled to right, Wiemer scored on error, Frelick to second, Frelick safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Tatis Jr..6–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Merrill grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Profar scored, Campusano out at second, Machado to third.6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Campusano singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second, Profar to third.5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 1Bauers doubled to right, Adames scored.4–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Kim homered to left (379 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Profar scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Machado grounded out to pitcher, Bogaerts scored, Profar to second, Tatis Jr. to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML SD -120 / MIL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- SD: Elo 43.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +18 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +48 Elo | MIL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 6.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 3–310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8–1 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–6 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.