Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andruw MonasterioBatting3-4
- Erick FeddePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fermín walked, Herrera scored, Walker to second, Burleson to third.1–5
- 5Chourio hit sacrifice fly to center, Ortiz scored.1–4
- 4Fermín doubled to left, Gorman scored and Walker scored.0–4
- 3Herrera homered to left center (419 feet), Scott II scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -135 / STL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +85 Elo | MIL 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3044–33 | Road vs home | 43–3717th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 1st of 301572 | Elo rating | 147624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–69 | 73–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–49 | 24–47 |
| Underdog | 42–20 | 49–35 |
| Overs–unders | 78–77 | 81–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 23–15 STL in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 38.