St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Monasterio singled to center, Durbin scored.8–9
- 10Durbin doubled to left, Perkins scored.8–8
- 10Herrera grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Walker scored, Donovan out at second, Scott II to third.8–7
- 9Contreras reached on infield single to third, Frelick scored, Chourio to second.7–7
- 9Chourio reached on infield single to second, Monasterio scored, Frelick to third.7–6
- 9Frelick doubled to center, Durbin scored, Monasterio to third.7–5
- 9Saggese singled to right, Church scored on error, Saggese safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Frelick, Contreras safe at third on error.7–4
- 8Yelich grounded out to shortstop, Chourio scored, Turang to second.6–4
- 8Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Frelick scored, Chourio to third.6–3
- 6Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Frelick scored.6–2
- 6Pagés scored on Zastryzny wild pitch, Donovan to second on wild pitch by Zastryzny.6–1
- 6Pagés scored on Zastryzny wild pitch, Donovan to second on wild pitch by Zastryzny.6–1
- 6Scott II hit sacrifice fly to center, Saggese scored.5–1
- 5Contreras singled to right, Herrera scored.4–1
- 3Frelick hit sacrifice fly to center, Bauers scored, Ortiz to second, Durbin to third.3–1
- 3Donovan homered to right center (396 feet).3–0
- 1Nootbaar doubled to center, Contreras scored on error, Nootbaar safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Ortiz.2–0
- 1Herrera homered to left center (394 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML STL +150 / MIL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -161
- STL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −13 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +104 Elo | MIL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–42 | Road vs home | 47–264th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 15711st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–80 | 83–65 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–46 | 41–45 |
| Underdog | 44–34 | 42–20 |
| Overs–unders | 78–70 | 74–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 13–21 MIL in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 34.