San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Chapman singled to left, Devers scored, Smith to second, Adames to third.3–4
- 6Smith singled to center, Knizner scored, Adames to second, Devers to third.2–4
- 6Devers singled to center, Gilbert scored, Knizner to second.1–4
- 5Winn grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Nootbaar scored, Gorman out at second, Herrera to third.0–4
- 5Gorman walked, Fermín scored, Herrera to second, Nootbaar to third.0–3
- 5Herrera singled to right, Church scored, Nootbaar to second, Fermín to third.0–2
- 5Nootbaar singled to center, Walker scored, Fermín to second, Church to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML SF +115 / STL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- STL: Elo 50.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- SF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.5 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −5 | SF: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +5 Elo | STL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 3037–36 | Road vs home | 40–3416th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–81 | 68–75 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–57 | 24–45 |
| Underdog | 36–24 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders | 69–73 | 76–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–7 STL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.