St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-3
- Hayden BirdsongPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wisely singled to center, Schmitt scored, Fitzgerald to second.6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 6Burleson singled to center, Fermín scored and Walker scored, Donovan to third.6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Fermín singled to right, Siani scored, Walker to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Burleson singled to right, Pagés scored, Donovan to second.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 5Donovan reached on infield single to second, Saggese scored, Pagés to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Donovan homered to right (371 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML STL +110 / SF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- SF: Elo 52.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −3 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +15 Elo | SF 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3038–42 | Road vs home | 42–3819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–79 | 78–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–48 | 31–50 |
| Underdog | 57–31 | 47–29 |
| Overs–unders | 75–83–2 | 84–72–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–7 SF in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.