St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Doyle homered to left center (400 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pagés singled to right, Herrera scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Goldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to right, Winn scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Pagés reached on infield single to shortstop, Walker scored, Saggese to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Schunk singled to left, Stallings scored, Jones to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Donovan hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Saggese doubled to right, Herrera scored, Saggese to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML STL -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- STL: Elo 58.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −7 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +57 Elo | STL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 19th of 3036–40 | Road vs home | 36–3823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–78 | 76–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–48 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 55–30 | 74–67 |
| Overs–unders | 72–82–2 | 79–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–5 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.