St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Aaron SchunkBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Winn doubled to right, Scott II scored and Walker scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 8Scott II singled to right, Nootbaar scored, Scott II to second, Walker to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Walker singled to left, Arenado scored, Nootbaar to second.4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Nootbaar scored, Winn out at second, Scott II to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Blackmon tripled to center, Schunk scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Schunk reached on infield single to third, Hilliard scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Schunk homered to left (380 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Winn homered to left (391 feet), Siani scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / COL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- STL: Elo 56.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +48 Elo | STL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 3035–40 | Road vs home | 36–3722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–78 | 76–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–48 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 54–30 | 74–67 |
| Overs–unders | 72–81–2 | 79–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–5 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.