Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Billy CookBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Walker doubled to left, Donovan scored, Nootbaar scored and Herrera scored.5–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–10
- 7Nootbaar singled to center, Arenado scored, Herrera to second, Donovan to third.5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 7Herrera reached on infield single to third, Goldschmidt scored, Donovan to second, Arenado to third.5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Winn homered to left (383 feet).5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 6Cook homered to right center (380 feet), Yorke scored and Triolo scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Yorke reached on infield single to first, N. Gonzales scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 4De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to right, McCutchen scored, N. Gonzales to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Arenado singled to left, Goldschmidt scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Goldschmidt tripled to center, Burleson scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Donovan homered to right (394 feet), Arenado scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- STL 66%
- ML PIT +180 / STL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- STL: Elo 59.5%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -191
- PIT +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | +9 | PIT: Jake Woodford: team allows 1.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +67 Elo | STL 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 20th of 3033–40 | Road vs home | 40–3516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–74 | 75–75 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 22–45 |
| Underdog | 51–32 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 74–74 | 70–78–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 13–11 STL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.