St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Donovan singled to right, Goldschmidt scored, Donovan to second.7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5McCutchen homered to center (407 feet).6–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 36–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Suwinski homered to right center (448 feet), Tellez scored and N. Gonzales scored.6–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 36–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4Gorman homered to left center (415 feet), Donovan scored, Arenado scored and Carpenter scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Burleson homered to right (367 feet), Winn scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML STL +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +17 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +30 Elo | PIT 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 19–2018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–42 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44–2 | 39–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–10 PIT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.