Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gorman singled to center, Contreras scored, Arenado to third.9–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 39–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 7Carpenter singled to center, Arenado scored, Gorman to second.9–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 19–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 7India doubled to left, Wynns scored.9–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 38–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 6Goldschmidt homered to center (407 feet).8–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Wynns doubled to left, Benson scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Benson singled to center, Marte scored and Fairchild scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Fairchild singled to left, Fraley scored and Steer scored, Marte to second.5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 64%
- ML CIN +165 / STL -195
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- STL: Elo 54.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -175
- CIN +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +9 | CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +32 Elo | STL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 22–1712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–38 | 39–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–23 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 26–15 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–45–1 | 35–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–10 STL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.