Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Matt CarpenterBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kelenic homered to right center (396 feet), Wall scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 5Burleson hit sacrifice fly to left, Carpenter scored, Winn to second, Siani to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to left, Goldschmidt scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 14–0
- 2Kelenic singled to right, Wall scored, Short to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Short singled to center, Laureano and Riley scored, Wall to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Laureano grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Olson scored, Murphy out at second, Riley to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML ATL -130 / STL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.9 – 3.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +4 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +56 Elo | ATL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 20–1511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–39 | 38–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–35 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 28–45–3 | 33–41–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–3 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.