Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Grisham homered to left (348 feet).3–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7d'Arnaud homered to right (355 feet), Ozuna scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Judge walked, Cabrera scored, Soto to second, Volpe to third.1–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 41–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Cabrera singled to right, Rice scored and Wells scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Torres doubled to left, Stanton scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Judge grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Cabrera scored, Soto out at second, Volpe to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 1Judge homered to right center (366 feet), Soto scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Ozuna homered to right center (394 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML ATL +115 / NYY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +16 Elo | NYY 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.45th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 23–138th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–37 | 45–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 28–28 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–43–3 | 39–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–0 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.