Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-3
- Yoendrys GomezPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Murphy doubled to left, Riley scored on fielding error by left fielder Jones, Murphy to third.8–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 4Olson homered to right center (374 feet), Albies scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Laureano doubled to right, Olson scored, Riley to third.5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2LeMahieu grounded out to second, Jones scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Kelenic singled to right, Duvall scored, Laureano to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Riley homered to center (413 feet).3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Albies homered to left (408 feet), Kelenic scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 50%
- ML ATL -110 / NYY -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 3.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −6 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +5 Elo | NYY 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 14th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 23–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–37 | 45–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 28–27 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–43–3 | 38–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–0 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.