Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-4
- Tarik SkubalPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Murphy homered to left center (423 feet), Duvall scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 4Albies scored on throwing error by pitcher Skubal, Ozuna safe at second on error.0–5
- 4Albies scored on throwing error by pitcher Skubal, Ozuna safe at second on error.0–5
- 4Laureano homered to left center (426 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Murphy homered to right center (407 feet), Riley scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Albies singled to left, Murphy scored, Laureano to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML DET +120 / ATL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 4.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +12 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +65 Elo | ATL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 23–138th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–39 | 34–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–24 | 28–34 |
| Underdog | 25–15 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 41–32 | 26–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–4 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.