Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting4-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick HernandezPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Keith homered to right center (379 feet).13–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–5
- 8Greene walked, Kelly scored, Kreidler to second, Pérez to third.12–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 412–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking11–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 311–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 7McCormick homered to center (428 feet), Cabbage scored and Bregman scored.11–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 211–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 7Cabbage doubled to center, Salazar scored.11–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–1
- 7Salazar doubled to right, Diaz scored.11–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 111–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–0
- 6Kelly homered to left (377 feet).11–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 3Canha singled to right, Vierling scored, Greene thrown out at third.10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–0
- 3Greene singled to center, Pérez scored, Vierling to third.9–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 2Canha scored on error, Keith safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Singleton.8–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 37–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML DET +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 3.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +52 Elo | HOU 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 18–1816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–38 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–24 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 40–29 | 26–38–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–6 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.