Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting5-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Hoppe homered to left (364 feet), Pillar scored.7–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–9
- 8Stefanic grounded out to second, Neto scored, Moniak to second.7–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 8Neto doubled to center, O'Hoppe scored.7–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 6Moniak singled to center, O'Hoppe scored.7–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 17–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 6Altuve homered to center (406 feet), McCormick scored.7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6McCormick doubled to left, J. Abreu scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 6J. Abreu doubled to left, Dubón scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Calhoun singled to left, Rengifo scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Moniak bunted into fielder's choice to third, Pillar scored, Neto out at second, O'Hoppe to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to right, Calhoun scored, O'Hoppe to second, Pillar to third.3–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 59%
- ML HOU -155 / LAA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -143
- LAA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +56 Elo | HOU 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–17 | Road vs home | 10–2330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–35 | 35–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–29 | 1–13 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 34–16 |
| Overs–unders | 24–35–3 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–6 LAA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.