San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cronenworth singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Moniak scored on De Los Santos wild pitch, Neto to third on wild pitch by De Los Santos.1–4
- 7Moniak scored on De Los Santos wild pitch, Neto to third on wild pitch by De Los Santos.1–4
- 7Neto doubled to left, O'Hoppe scored and Adell scored, Moniak to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Rengifo singled to center, Guillorme scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Machado singled to left, Arraez scored, Tatis Jr. to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML SD -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- SD: Elo 56.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −7 | SD: Adam Mazur (no track record yet) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +46 Elo | SD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 8–2130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–29 | 33–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–22 | 0–13 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 33–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–29–1 | 33–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–1 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.